Posts Tagged ‘Science’
“Here comes the sun”*…
Further, in a fashion, to last Wednesday’s post… We’ve looked before (e.g., here) at the potential havoc that solar storms could wreak on our electified lives. Now, as Paul Voosen reports, scientists are speculating on a defense, suggesting that gases released from satellites could slash the threat of severe “space weather”…
When violent eruptions from the Sun slam into Earth’s magnetic field, they do more than paint aurorae across the night sky. They can scramble the electronics of satellites and induce powerful ground currents that knock out electrical grids. It’s been estimated that a one-in-a-100-year solar storm like the 1859 Carrington Event could cause more than $3 trillion of damage to the power grid alone. [See here.]
Yet for decades, society’s only defenses have been better space weather forecasts and more durable technology on the ground and in space. Now, a small group of space physicists says humanity should intervene and weaken solar storms in real time. In a study published [recently] in Space Weather, the researchers describe a provocative proposal called “StormWall”: a fleet of satellites that would release hundreds of tons of gases into space just before a solar storm strikes Earth. Computer simulations suggest the artificial cloud could cut the intensity of a major solar storm by half or more. “It’s as if you could install an airbag in the magnetosphere,” says Daniel Welling, a co-author and space physicist at the University of Michigan.
Call it “helioengineering”—a deliberate intervention in the near-Earth space environment. But unlike controversial geoengineering proposals to mitigate global warming, which would inject long-lived Sun-blocking particles into the atmosphere, StormWall’s protective gases would dissipate within hours, says Brian Walsh, the study’s lead author and a space physicist at Boston University. “It’s waiting for us to do some temporary modification.”
The proposal would require more extensive simulations and testing. But it is “highly innovative and appears to be quite feasible in the near term,” says Allison Jaynes, a space physicist at the University of Iowa. It’s a “laudable idea,” adds Gurudas Ganguli, a space physicist at the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory (NRL)…
[Voosen explains the technology proposed and considers the challenges in its implementation…]
… Of course, like an airbag, StormWall would have to be replaced if deployed. But just as NASA and other space agencies are studying how to protect the planet from asteroids [and here], Walsh says there’s a good argument for fortifying an electronics-dependent society against massive solar eruptions. “If we lose all our power grids and can’t use the internet for 6 years, it would be traumatic.”
“Radical proposal would block solar storms with orbital ‘airbag’” from @science.org.
* George Harrison
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As we apply sunscreen, we might send bright birthday greetings to Godfried Wendelen; he was born on this date in 1580. And astronomer (and Catholic priest) known as “the Ptolemy of his time.” Despite the tenets of his church, Wendelen was an audacious proponent of the Copernican theory that the planets orbit around the sun. He made more accurate measurements of the distance to the sun than those previously made by Aristachus (2,000 years earlier) from the geometrical relationships at the exact time of a half-moon.
Wendelen is considered by many as a precursor of Kepler and Newton, and was in fact cited by Newton in his Principia. The crater Vendelinus on the Moon is named after him
“A simile is just a metaphor with the scaffolding still up”*…
Russell Samora has been fooling around with figures of speech; with his colleagues at The Pudding, he’s fielded a fascinating analysis of of that comparative workhorse, the simile…
Similes are all around us. But, if you haven’t considered this figure of speech since grade school, here’s a refresher: similes compare a shared quality of two things, often using “like” or “as.”
I pulled every simile in the form “as ___ as ___” from tens of thousands of fiction books for the top 500 most common adjectives… I thought it would be a trivial exercise, but the more I poked around, the more questions I had…
Samora explains how similes are structured and how they are used (and with what relative frequency) in literature. He examines some of the most common– and several special cases (“The Ironic Ones”). And he explains his methodology and sources… all in the context of a lovely interactive data visualization.
It’s as cool as hell: “Comparisons as Predictable as the Sunrise,” from @pudding.cool.
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As we agree with Steve Martin that “a day without sunshine is like, you know, night,” we might recall that it was on this date in 1789 that Richard Kirwan published his essay in support of the phlogiston theory (the belief, that dates to alchemical times, in the existence of a fire-like element (dubbed “phlogiston”) contained within combustible bodies and released during burning. Kirwan was among the last of its advocates.
A well-regarded scientist in the late 18th and early 19th centuries, Kirwan met and corresponded with Black, Lavoisier, Priestley, and Cavendish. Indeed, while scientific history remembers him as a defender of an incorrect theory, his work probably spurred Priestley and Lavoisier, who respectively discovered and named the actual elemental agent of combustion, oxygen.
But Kirwan is also remembered for a personal eccentricity (one of many) that led to some referring to him (all too poignantly) as “crazy as a bed bug”: he hated bugs (especially flies). Kirwan paid his servants a bounty for each one they killed.
“Counterfactual reasoning, which deals with what-ifs, might strike some readers as unscientific. Indeed, empirical observation can never confirm or refute the answers to such questions.”*..
… still, we ask of our history, our reality “what if?”… The estimable Colin McGinn ponders why…
In a world with less gravity, the birds would be huge. In a world with more gravity, only insects would fly. In a world with more light and plant predators, plants would have consciousness and advanced intelligence. In a world with greater water resistance, whales would be small. In a colder world, there would be no cold-blooded animals. In a hotter world, all animals would be cold-blooded. In a wetter world, we would have gills. In a drier world, life would begin on the land, if it begins at all. In a world without tool-forming materials, we would still be walking on four legs. In a world with only predators, there would be no life. In a world without predators, life would be simple and boring. In a world without a sun, life would be primitive, unless there was another power source. In a world with available nuclear power, life would be much more abundant than now. In a world without consciousness, there would be no war. In a world without emotion, there would be no suicide. In a world with no psychology, there would be no madness. In a world without motion, there world be no progress and no death. In a world without causation, there would be only chaos. In a world without necessity, there would be only randomness. In a world without events, everything would be eternal. In a world without the infinite, there would be no finite. In a world without relations, there would be no facts. In a world without facts, there would be nothing. In a world without reality, there would be no unreality. In a world without nothingness, there would be no being.
Counterfactuals are inherently surprising, which is why we are fascinated by them. They tell us how different things could be under small changes. There are many kinds of counterfactual. We live in their shadow. They are always controversial, sometimes paradoxical. They give us a sense of intellectual freedom. They scare us. They are also funny. We wouldn’t know what to do without them. In a world without counterfactuals, there would be no thought worthy of the name…
On the utility– the necessity– of contemplating the unreal: “Counterfactuals.”
See also: “What is counterfactual thinking and why should you care about it?” (source of the image above)
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As we analyze alternatives, we might recall that it was on this date in 1898 that chemist Morris Travers discovered Krypton– the element (Kr), not the counterfactual planet.
“Adaptation and mitigation are two sides of the same coin. If mitigation is about preventing the unmanageable, adaptation is about managing the unavoidable.”*…
Adapting to climate change is quickly becoming part of everyday life. Nabig Chaudhry outlines seven trends we’re seeing for 2026 and beyond…
Within the climate and scientific communities, there’s growing concern about how quickly the world is approaching (and may exceed) 2°C of warming. 2024 was the first calendar year in which global average temperature exceeded 1.5°C above preindustrial levels. The impacts of rapid warming are becoming harder to miss: The climate is changing quickly almost everywhere, local and global climate risks are growing, progress on mitigation has become more politically constrained and uncertain, and many of our systems and policies aren’t prepared for the conditions ahead.
Growing climate risk is increasing the demand for new technologies, tools, strategies, and ways of thinking about climate adaptation. Since publishing our Insights on Climate Adaptation in 2025 report, the practice of climate adaptation has continued to develop, as more people, communities, organizations, and institutions work to understand and respond to climate risks.
People use different language to describe climate adaptation (including climate resilience), but the work centers on helping people, communities, and organizations manage the risks of a changing climate. Those activities are expanding, and we can already see signs. For example, new funding and investment vehicles are emerging, such as Tailwind Futures, and adaptation is receiving more dedicated space at major climate convenings, including The Adaptation Forum, a co-hosted gathering of thought leaders in the adaptation space during Climate Week NYC 2025.
In my role as Director of Climate Adaptation Research at Probable Futures and through my PhD program at the University of California, Berkeley, I speak with experts, read emerging research, and study adaptation developments every day. Through these conversations and insights, I’ve reflected on which adaptation trends are likely to emerge and strengthen…
Chaudhry npacks seven different trends; here, let me highlight two. The first is one that (Roughly) Daily has visited before, insurance…
Elevating insurance as a force in adaptation planning, policy, and behavior
Insurance is a valuable adaptation tool, as it can transfer risk, support recovery after climate shocks, and help signal where danger is increasing through premiums, deductibles, coverage limits, or insurer retreat. It can also shape incentives, because the way risk is priced can influence whether and how people and institutions reduce exposure, strengthen buildings, or avoid certain kinds of development.
As climate risks grow, damage to property and homes becomes more frequent and severe. Property owners are experiencing those shocks both physically (flooding, fire, wind damage, etc.) and financially as insurance markets adjust and recalibrate in response to changing probabilities and severities. Insurance markets have begun reflecting climate risk, and those changes are starting to influence where and how people build homes and infrastructure, where they invest in property, and where they choose to live.
A useful example of how insurance is beginning to influence adaptation efforts in the public sphere is Strengthen Alabama Homes, a program of the Alabama Department of Insurance. The program provides grants to help homeowners retrofit their homes and roofs to reduce wind damage from extreme winds and storms. Homeowners who participate can receive discounts on the wind portion of their homeowner’s insurance premium, which makes insurance not only a tool for recovery but also a tool for encouraging adaptation before exposure occurs.
Insurance pricing is one way climate risk is made visible, priced, and acted on through adaptation. I expect that insurance will increasingly influence adaptation planning, policy, and behavior, not only by helping people recover after climate shocks, but by shaping the choices people make before those shocks occur. The development of the insurance industry will therefore be an important factor in adaptation. If insurers become a source not only of risk pricing but also of risk information, adaptation guidance, and incentives to reduce risk, they could help more people act before losses occur. But that would require a meaningful shift in the role of insurance companies, from mainly pricing and transferring risk to also helping people reduce it…
The second goes to the contentious topic of geoengineering…
Expanding debate around the role of climate intervention
As warming continues, risks keep growing. We have more, clearer, worrisome signals that irreversible change, tipping points, and local climate changes so severe that adaptation is impractical if not impossible, are not far off. In response, people and institutions are starting new conversations about global-scale responses. One of those responses is climate intervention, sometimes called geoengineering.
Climate intervention generally refers to intentional efforts to alter Earth’s systems in order to counteract some of the effects of climate change. It can include approaches that remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, as well as approaches that reflect a portion of sunlight back into space, such as stratospheric aerosol injection.
Its relationship to adaptation is uneasy, but important. If climate intervention is, at its core, an effort to manage the otherwise unmanageable risks of global climate change, then is it another tool for adapting to climate change, or is it something fundamentally different? There is no consensus, and there may never be, not least because global action will cause uneven responses locally. We don’t know much about the potential impacts of some climate interventions, how they could affect different regions unequally, or what long-term consequences they may have for Earth’s climate and natural systems.
There are good reasons to have informed conversations and do fundamental research on intervention. People with adaptation expertise can help explore, illuminate, and explain what climate intervention could mean for society and nature. There are also likely to be benefits for adaptation professionals to participate in these conversations and research projects. Even if climate intervention is never widely deployed, the debate itself may shape adaptation thinking, climate policy, research funding, public trust, and international governance.
Climate change requires people to consider risks and options, whether for mitigation, adaptation, or intervention. Treating strategies for managing the rate, pace, and impacts of climate change as distinct and separate is unlikely to lead to good outcomes. I am hopeful that there will be more collaboration across these new fields as society faces new challenges that have a common root cause. This may include more discussion about how these technologies should be governed, whether they should receive more investment, and whether climate intervention is a possible third leg alongside mitigation and adaptation…
Eminently worth reading in full: “The near-term future of climate adaptation: emerging trends.”
* U. N. Environmental Program
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As we prepare, we might recall (wistfully) that it was on this date in 1942 that Bing Crosby, with the Trotter Orchestra and the Darby Singers, recorded Irving Berlin’s song, “White Christmas.” According to the Guinness Book of World Records, this version is the best-selling single of all time with an excess of 50 million copies sold worldwide. (In fact, the version most often heard today is not the original. After frequent use, the master had become damaged, so on March 18, 1947, Crosby re-recorded the holiday hit.)
“Pure mathematics is, in its way, the poetry of logical ideas”*…
Alexander Grothendieck is revered in the world of math; outside of it, he’s known for his unusual life, if he’s known at all. Konstantin Kakaes outlines his actual mathematical contributions…
What Albert Einstein was to 20th-century physics, Alexander Grothendieck was to 20th-century mathematics. He is much less well known because math gets technical even more quickly than physics does. But as with Einstein, Grothendieck’s impact came not just from his own results, revolutionary though they were. His work also reoriented his entire discipline in radical new directions.
Grothendieck was intense and ascetic from his early days. Starting in the early 1950s, when he was in his 20s, he produced thousands of pages of formal and informal notes that changed the course of mathematics. Then in 1970, he quit. He left his post at a prestigious research institute just outside of Paris to teach at the provincial university in Montpellier where he studied as an undergraduate. He mostly stopped talking to other mathematicians. In the early 1990s, he moved to a small village in the Pyrenees, where he lived as a hermit.
Mathematicians are still grappling with the innovations he made half a century ago. His work pushed mathematics to a new level of abstraction by focusing on the relationships between objects rather than the objects themselves. “If there is one thing in mathematics which fascinates me more than any other (and undoubtedly always has), it is neither ‘number’ nor ‘size,’ but invariably shape,” he wrote in his memoirs. “And among the thousand and one faces under which shape chooses to reveal itself to us, that which has fascinated me more than any other and continues to do so is the structure hidden in mathematical things.”
His revolutionary mathematics centered around that search for hidden structure…
Read on: “How Alexander Grothendieck Revolutionized 20th-Century Mathematics,” from @kkakaes.bsky.social in @quantamagazine.bsky.social.
For more, see the section on Grothendieck in Benjamin Labatut‘s remarkable When We Cease To Understand the World.
* Albert Einstein
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As we study shape, we might send speculative birthday greetings to a man who, while not technically a mathematician, nonetheless created a famous equation: Frank Drake; he was born this date in 1930. An astronomer and astrophysicist, he formulated the Drake Equation in 1961 to estimate the number of technological civilizations that might exist in the Milky Way galaxy, N = R* × fp × ne× fl × fi × fc × L. Using plausible guesses for the parameters, Drake concluded perhaps 10 planets in our galaxy may have life originating detectable signals. In 1960, Drake led the first search, the two-month Project Ozma to listen for patterns in radio waves with a complex, ordered pattern that might be assumed to represent messages from some extraterrestrial intelligence.
Carl Sagan and Drake designed the plaques on Pioneer 10 and Pioneer 11 for the purpose of greeting and informing any extraterrestrial life that might find the vessels after they left the solar system.
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