Posts Tagged ‘regulation’
“Look before you ere you leap; / For as you sow, y’ are like to reap”*…
Further in a fashion to Saturday’s post, Robert Wright on the recent AI Summit in Paris…
[Last] week at the Paris AI summit, Vice President JD Vance stood before heads of state and tech titans and said, “When conferences like this convene to discuss a cutting edge technology, oftentimes, I think, our response is to be too self-conscious, too risk-averse. But never have I encountered a breakthrough in tech that so clearly calls us to do precisely the opposite.”
Precisely the opposite of “too risk-averse” would seem to be “not risk-averse enough.” Or maybe, as both ChatGPT and Anthropic’s Claude said when asked for the opposite of “too risk-averse”: “too risk-seeking” or “reckless.” In any event, most people in the AI safety community would agree that such terms capture the Trump administration’s approach to AI regulation. And that includes people who generally share Trump’s and Vance’s laissez faire intuitions. AI researcher Rob Miles posted a video of Vance’s speech on X and commented, “It’s so depressing that the one time when the government takes the right approach to an emerging technology, it’s for basically the only technology where that’s actually a terrible idea.”
The news for AI safety advocates gets worse: The summit’s overall vibe wasn’t all that different from Vance’s. The host, French President Emmanuel Macron, after announcing a big AI infrastructure investment, said that France is “back in the AI race” and that “Europe and France must accelerate their investments.” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen vowed to “accelerate innovation” and “cut red tape” that now hobbles innovators. China and the US may be the world’s AI leaders, she granted, but “the AI race is far from being over.” All of this sat well with the corporate sector. As Axios reported, “A range of tech leaders, including Google CEO Sundar Pichai and Mistral CEO Arthur Mensch, used their speeches to push the acceleration mantra.”
Seems like only yesterday Sundar Pichai was emphasizing the need for international regulation, saying that AI, for all its benefits, holds great dangers. But, actually, that was back in 2023, when people like Open AI’s Sam Altman were also saying such things. That was the year world leaders convened in Britain’s Bletchley Park to discuss ways to collectively address AI risks, including catastrophic ones. The idea was to hold annual global summits on the international governance of AI. In theory, the Paris summit was the third of these (after the 2024 summit in Seoul). But you should always read the fine print: Whereas the official name of the first summit was “AI Safety Summit,” this year’s version was “AI Action Summit.” The headline over the Axios story was: “Don’t miss out” replaces “doom is nigh” at Paris’ AI summit.
The statement that came out of the summit did call for AI “safety” (along with “sustainable development, innovation,” and many other virtuous things). But there was no elaboration. Nothing, for example, about preventing people from using AIs to help make bioweapons—the kind of problem you’d think would call for international regulation, since pandemics don’t recognize national borders (and the kind of problem that some knowledgeable observers worry has been posed by OpenAI’s recently released Deep Research model).
MIT physicist Max Tegmark tweeted on Monday that a leaked draft of the summit statement seemed “optimized to antagonize both the US government (with focus on diversity, gender and disinformation) and the UK government (completely ignoring the scientific and political consensus around risks from smarter-than-human AI systems that was agreed at the Bletchley Park Summit).” And indeed, Britain and the US refused to sign the statement. The other 60 attending nations, including China, signed it.
Journalist Shakeel Hashim wrote about the world’s journey from Bletchley Park to Paris: “What was supposed to be a crucial forum for international cooperation has ended as a cautionary tale about how easily serious governance efforts can be derailed by national self-interest.” But, he said, the Paris Summit may have value “as a wake-up call. It has shown, definitively, that the current approach to AI governance is broken. The question now is whether we have time to fix it.”…
The ropes are down; the brakes are off: “AI Accelerationism Goes Global,” from @robertwrighter.bsky.social.
Apposite: the always-illuminating (and amusing) Matt Levine on Elon Musk’s bid to purchase Open AI (gift link to Bloomberg).
* Samuel Butler, Hudibras
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As we prioritize prudence, we might spare a thought for Giordano Bruno; he died on this date in 1600. A philosopher, poet, alchemist, astrologer, cosmological theorist, and esotericist (occultist), his theories anticipated modern science. The most notable of these were his theories of the infinite universe and the multiplicity of worlds, in which he rejected the traditional geocentric (or Earth-centred) astronomy and intuitively went beyond the Copernican heliocentric (sun-centred) theory, which still maintained a finite universe with a sphere of fixed stars. Although one of the most important philosophers of the Italian Renaissance, Bruno’s various passionate utterings led to intense opposition. In 1592, after a trial by the Roman Inquisition, he was kept imprisoned for eight years and interrogated periodically. When, in the end, he refused to recant, he was burned at the stake in Rome for heresy.
“Follow the Money”*…

Chinese crime syndicates are operating underground banks to launder the proceeds of fentanyl sales. But, as Miles Kellerman explains, their practices, and the risks they pose, are far from new…
One way of thinking about finance is to imagine it as an endless web of information assembly lines. Every transaction starts as a signal: some person wants to buy some thing. This is the raw material of demand. That material must, in turn, eventually make its way to whomever is in a position to supply. Sometimes this is easy. When you buy mangos at a farmers market, for example, you have direct communication with the supplier, handing over cash with one hand while receiving mangos with the other. But such direct interaction is rare. For most transactions, buyer demand must first travel along informational conveyor belts, where intermediaries shape, mold, and redirect that raw material before it reaches suppliers.
Take residential real estate. If a couple wants to purchase a beachfront bungalow in Santa Barbara, they probably aren’t going to just show up at the front door with a duffle-bag full of cash. That would be weird. Rather, they are much more likely to express their demand through a realtor. This information then makes its way down the assembly line, where it passes through a series of intermediaries: the seller’s realtor, title company, mortgage advisor, attorney, and, finally, the bank.
But buyers and sellers are not the only ones interested in this process. There is also the inquisitive eye of the state. Every stage of the information assembly line contains clues — about unpaid taxes, money laundering, terrorist financing, and all sorts of other shenanigans. The state would love to patrol every assembly line looking for these clues, like a mustached inspector peering over the shoulder of nervous factory workers. But this is expensive. And many of us would prefer that our information is assembled by intermediaries in private.
The state’s solution to this problem has been to outsource surveillance. It requires that certain intermediaries on the information assembly line look for signs of suspicion and report those suspicions to regulators. These are what is referred to as Anti-Money Laundering, or AML, obligations. At the risk of abusing the analogy, intermediaries with AML obligations are like factory produce inspectors. They spend all day staring at fruit as it travels across the conveyor belt, sorting out the rotten apples and tossing them into separate bins.
But what if, somewhere along the production line, the informational conveyor belt just…disappears? The Financial Times has reported that Chinese crime syndicates are capable of performing such sorcery. These syndicates, the FT writes, are using a “new” network to launder the proceeds of fentanyl sales, one that “…minimizes the movement of funds across borders.” The money simply disappears in one place and reappears in another, as if governed by quantum physics. But this is not magic. Nor is it new. It is instead an alternative conveyor belt of information, one that has operated outside the confines of the state for over a thousand years. And it goes by a simple yet ominous name: underground banking.
Imagine, for a moment, that you are a textile merchant somewhere along the 6,000 kilometer stretch of the ancient Silk Road. Every business has risks. But your risks are a bit more extreme. Large stretches of your trade routes are located in harsh desert climates where water is sparse. Nor is there any guarantee of security. Nomadic raiders could strike your caravans at any moment. And, even if you survive the trip, you could arrive to your destination only to find that it has been sacked by Attila the Hun (or, later, the roaming armies of Genghis Khan).
The last thing you want to do, in such a dangerous environment, is carry cash on you. Credit cards would be a great alternative. “No!” you might explain to Chase customer service after having your card stolen by Hun raiders, “I definitely did not order horse archers.” But it’s about 600 – 1,900 years too early for that. In this pre-electricity era, you need an alternative system. Specifically, one that allows you to manage your payments, settle outstanding balances, and avoid the perils of carrying money across the Persian desert. Enter Hawala.
Hawala is an Arabic term roughly meaning “to change” or “to transfer.” It refers to a system in which networks of brokers (hawaladars) facilitate the movement of value from one geographic location to another. Nobody really knows when Hawala was first used. But there is evidence from the 6th century that Muhammed, the founder of Islam, was familiar with at least some version. Similar systems, with equally ancient roots, have existed in India (Hundi), Thailand (phoe kuan), and China, whose term Fei-Chien translates to flying money. And they have collectively come to be referred to as different varieties of “underground banking.”
Here’s how a Hawala transaction might have worked on the Silk Road. Say you are a merchant in Iran who wants to import Aleppo pepper from Syria. Rather than drag heavy coins across the desert, you provide the necessary money (in whatever form was used at the time) to your local broker. In return, the broker would issue what was, in effect, a bill of exchange — a written order to pay an equivalent amount of money to the supplier at a later date. Once you arrive to Aleppo, you present that document to a Syrian broker, who honors the bill of exchange by issuing the money to the supplier in local currency. Each broker charges a commission for their services and settles their balances through repeated business.
With this simple maneuver, currency has been exchanged across borders. But rather than physically moving money from one place to the next, the brokers have received and distributed local currency from their respective pots. The only true transfer is one of information…
… Trust is also essential to contemporary Hawala systems. But today’s networks are more focused on facilitating cross-border payments and currency conversions rather than international trade. Remittances are one important example. If a worker in Belgium wants to send money to their family in Pakistan, they can do so through their local Hawala broker. But unlike their ancient predecessors, there is no need for these brokers to issue a bill of exchange. They can simply pick up the phone or text their foreign counterparts that the money has been deposited.
But how can the worker be sure that the person picking up the money is actually their family member? One common solution: secret codes. Hawala brokers will often require each party to express these pre-agreed codes, which could be as simple as reciting the same verse from the Quran. Another option, observed in a Chinese context, is to present a sugar cube with a specially imprinted symbol — and swallow it once the transaction is complete.
You might be thinking that, aside from the secret sugar cubes, this all sounds pretty familiar. And you would be correct. Hawala is, in essence, the earliest known form of trade finance. It is also a predecessor to “modern” payment institutions and foreign exchange providers…
… Wise [an “above-ground payment system] implies that Hawala is informal because it is not regulated by the state. This is the same logic often applied to characterize such networks as “underground” banking systems. There is a historical irony here. Hawala, Hundi, and similar networks operated for hundreds of years before ‘states’ were a thing. And in some situations, such as the British Raj, sovereigns endorsed their use as indigenous forms of payment. Thus ‘formality’ is probably better thought of as a spectrum here, one which depends on both the state’s desire to regulate and the market’s desire to be regulated.
Nevertheless, Wise is correct that hawaladars are largely unregulated. In fact, they are outlawed in many countries, something Wise — a competing service — is keen to emphasize. And the reason is simple: Hawaladars often maintain fewer records of the transactions they facilitate for their clients. They disrupt, in other words, the informational assembly lines of the ‘formal’ financial system, undermining the capacity of the state or its intermediaries to perform surveillance. And this is music to the ears of a particular clientele. Namely: human traffickers, terrorists, and other actors with nefarious motives to move their money in the dark…
[Kellerman describes how Hawala works and gives examples from the Underground Silk Road…]
Here we see both the benefits and limitations of Hawala as a mechanism for financial crime. Like their ancient predecessors, Chinese brokers can move money from one place to another without a trace, sidestepping the informational assembly line of the state-controlled financial system. But additional steps are needed to actually launder the cash. And these steps often involve re-entering the assembly line by interacting with regulated intermediaries. The Chinese businesses buying Mexican products for the cartel, for instance, would have done so through banks with standard obligations to perform AML checks. Thus Hawala can obscure the movement of cash but cannot protect that cash once it enters the ‘formal’ economy.
And there is another caveat: a big one. Chinese underground banks move money through alternative conveyor belts of information which rely on the use of ‘encrypted’ WeChat texts. But are these really so secure? It is commonly understood that the Chinese state surveils WeChat and other messaging services. This has led some to speculate that certain Chinese government officials must be participating in these underground networks. Perhaps we will never know.
What we can say for certain is that the use of app-based communication is a deep security vulnerability for underground banking. These networks are attractive to drug cartels and other bad actors because they disrupt transactional audit trails. Phrased differently: they disassemble information. But communication can undermine these benefits by creating another type of paper trail, one that reassembles how cash moves from one pot to another. Criminals should take note. And so too should any public officials that may be assisting them. To paraphrase the great Lester Freeman, if you follow the cash, you’ll find the money brokers. But if you start to follow the texts, you don’t know where it might take you…
The advantages– and risks– to criminals of underground banking: “The (Dis)assembly of Information,” from @Miles_Kellerman. Eminently worth reading in full.
* “Deep Throat” in All the President’s Men (though it’s not clear that the real deep throat ever actually said that…)
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As we think about transnational transactions, we might recall that it was on this date in 1790 that an act of Congress, passed at the urging of Treasury Secretary Alexander Hamilton, created the United States Revenue Cutter Service– an armed maritime customs enforcement agency aimed at enforcing tariffs by reducing smuggling… which later became the U.S. Coast Guard.
“Success is in making money, not in the size of the airline”*…
Airlines make more money from mileage programs than from flying planes—and it shows. Ganesh Sitaraman explains…
… From the late 1930s through the ’70s, the federal government regulated airlines as a public utility. The Civil Aeronautics Board decided which airlines could fly what routes and how much they could charge. It aimed to set prices that were fair for travelers and that would provide airlines with a modest profit. Then, in 1978, Congress passed a sweeping law deregulating the airline industry and ultimately abolishing the CAB. Unleashed from regulation, airlines devised new tactics to capture the market. American Airlines was one of the most aggressive. In the lead-up to the deregulation bills, it created discount “super saver” fares to sell off the final few remaining seats on planes. That meant cheap prices for last-minute travelers and more revenue for American, because the planes were going to take off whether or not the seat was filled. But these fares upset business travelers, who tended to buy tickets further in advance for higher prices. So in 1981, American developed AAdvantage, its frequent-flier program, to give them additional benefits. Other airlines followed suit.
In the early years, these programs were simple, like the punch card at a café where your 11th coffee is free. But three big changes transformed them into the systems we know today. First, in 1987, American partnered with Citibank to offer a branded credit card that offered points redeemable for flights on the airline. Second, in the ’90s, the airlines proliferated the number of fare classes, charging differential prices for tickets. With more complicated fare structures came the third change: Virgin America realized that the amount people spend on a flight, based on the fare class, is more important to their bottom line than the number of miles flown. So, in 2007, it introduced a loyalty program rewarding money spent rather than mileage accrued.
These three shifts fundamentally transformed the airline industry. They turned frequent-flier systems into the sprawling points systems they are today. And they turned airlines into something more like financial institutions that happen to fly planes on the side.
Here’s how the system works now: Airlines create points out of nothing and sell them for real money to banks with co-branded credit cards. The banks award points to cardholders for spending, and both the banks and credit-card companies make money off the swipe fees from the use of the card. Cardholders can redeem points for flights, as well as other goods and services sold through the airlines’ proprietary e-commerce portals.
For the airlines, this is a great deal. They incur no costs from points until they are redeemed—or ever, if the points are forgotten. This setup has made loyalty programs highly lucrative. Consumers now charge nearly 1 percent of U.S. GDP to Delta’s American Express credit cards alone. A 2020 analysis by the Financial Times found that Wall Street lenders valued the major airlines’ mileage programs more highly than the airlines themselves. United’s MileagePlus program, for example, was valued at $22 billion, while the company’s market cap at the time was only $10.6 billion.
Is this a good deal for the American consumer? That’s a trickier question. Paying for a flight or a hotel room with points may feel like a free bonus, but because credit-card-swipe fees increase prices across the economy—Visa or Mastercard takes a cut of every sale—redeeming points is more like getting a little kickback. Certainly the system is bad for Americans who don’t have points-earning cards. They pay higher prices on ordinary goods and services but don’t get the points, effectively subsidizing the perks of card users, who tend to be wealthier already.
…
The strange evolution of airlines into quasi-banks reflects how badly deregulation has gone. Regulation carefully set the terms under which airlines could do business. It was designed to ensure that they remained a stable business and a reliable mode of transportation. Deregulation, in turn, allowed the airlines to pursue profits in whatever way they could—including getting into the financial sector.
The proponents of deregulation made a few big promises. The cost of flying would go down once airlines were free to compete on price. The industry would get less monopolistic as hundreds of new players entered the market, and it would be stable even without the government guaranteeing profitable rates. Small cities wouldn’t lose service. In the deregulators’ minds, airlines were like any other business. If they were allowed to compete freely, the magic of the market would make everything better. Whatever was good for the airlines’ bottom line would be good for consumers.
They were wrong. As I explain in my forthcoming book, most of their predictions didn’t come true, because air travel isn’t a normal business. There are barriers to entry, such as the fixed supply of airport runways and gates. (And, for that matter, mileage programs, designed to keep customers from ditching an established airline for a rival.) There are network effects and economies of scale. There are high capital costs. (Airplanes aren’t cheap.) The idea that anyone could successfully start an airline and outcompete the big incumbents never made much sense.
After a relatively short period of fierce competition, the deregulated era quickly turned to consolidation and cost-cutting, as dozens of airlines either went bankrupt or were acquired. Service keeps getting worse, because the airlines, facing little competition, have nothing to fear from antagonizing passengers with cramped legroom, cancellations, and ever-multiplying fees for baggage and snacks. Worse still, without mandated service, cities and regions across the country have lost commercial air service, with serious consequences for their economies. And when a crisis like 9/11 or the coronavirus pandemic comes along, the airlines—which prefer to direct their profits to stock buybacks rather than rainy-day funds—need massive financial relief from the federal government.
Deregulation even failed to deliver the one thing it is sometimes credited with: lowering prices. Airfare did get cheaper in the years after the 1978 deregulation law. But the cost of flying had already been falling before deregulation, and it kept falling after at about the same rate.
The old system of airline regulation wasn’t perfect. Barred from competing directly on price, the airlines got into an amenities arms race that notoriously included in-flight piano bars. But the cure was worse than the disease. The industry went from being a regulated oligopoly, which had real problems, to an unregulated oligopoly, which we are now seeing is much worse…
Painful reading: “Airlines Are Just Banks Now” (gift article) from @GaneshSitaraman in @TheAtlantic.
* Gordon Bethune (Long-time chair of Continental Airlines)
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As we pray for an aisle seat, we might console ourselves that at least we’re not boarding the S.S. Minnow; on this date in 1964 Gilligan’s Island premiered on CBS. Seven castaways– five paying passengers who’d booked a “three hour tour” from Honolulu, and their two-person crew– spent the next three seasons marooned on an uncharted island.
“It’s very easy for trusted companies to mislead naive customers, and life insurance companies are trusted”*…
Systemic risk in the financial system– the kind that can create devastation like the Crash of 2008— has been the province of regulators for many decades, primarily the SEC and the Federal Reserve. But as our financial system has become more complex and intertwined, that risk may have moved from the stock market and banks to other sectors, sectors less well regulated. As John Ellis explains in his terrific newsletter, News Items, we might do well to turn our attention to the seemingly staid insurance industry…
The Fed exists to oversee banking, but lately it’s been keeping an eye on life insurance, too. Its recent Financial Stability Report flagged some life-insurance practices that might make the system vulnerable. Some insurers invest in assets that “can suffer sudden increases in default risk,” the report said. And some use “nontraditional” funding sources that could dry up “on short notice.”
That sounds ominous. But not long after that, Jon Gray, the president of private-equity giant Blackstone, turned up in a Financial Times article, saying life insurers had the wherewithal to bolster America’s weakened regional banks.
Gray said private equity firms like Blackstone could get “very low-cost capital” from life insurers and extend it to regional banks, to fund their lending operations. That would be a boon, because the banks’ usual source of funding, customer deposits, has grown more expensive and flighty in the wake of this year’s bank failures. So the life insurers could help ease a credit squeeze.
And once the banks make the loans, Gray said, the insurers might like to acquire some of them as investments. Blackstone manages billions of dollars of insurance investments, and Gray said the firm was already talking with large, unnamed regional banks about such deals.
So, what’s up with life insurance? Is the industry so flush it can send money to shore up America’s weakened banks? If so, then what’s the Fed worried about?
As it happens, a group of Fed economists has some answers. They got under the hood of the life insurance industry and combed through the voluminous regulatory filings of more than a thousand life insurers in the years since the crash of 2008. The U.S. financial system was going through major changes then, and they wanted to understand how the insurers had navigated the changing landscape.
One trend they observed: First, America’s bailed-out banks, seen as having gambled with their depositors’ money, were brought under the broad financial-reform legislation known as Dodd-Frank. It steered them away from making any more loans to big, low-rated borrowers. Then, once the banks had departed that space, life insurers moved in.
As a result, “These insurers have become exponentially more vulnerable to an aggregate corporate sector shock,” wrote the three economists, Nathan Foley-Fisher, Nathan Heinrich, and Stéphane Verani, in a paper first published in February 2020 and updated in April of this year.
Their findings cast the life insurance industry in a very different light from the traditional image of dull, stable companies plodding along under the weight of big, safe, bond-laden investment portfolios.
“Within ten years, the U.S. life insurance industry has grown into one of the largest private debt investors in the world,” the three wrote.
At the end of 2020, life insurers managed one-fourth of all outstanding CLOs, or collateralized loan obligations – bond-like securities backed by pools of loans to large, low-rated borrowers. Because the underlying borrowers have low ratings, CLOs pay a higher yield than the high-grade corporate bonds a conventional life portfolio would hold.
The insurers were also using unusual sources of capital to fuel their growth (funding-agreement-backed repos, anyone?). Not all life insurers, but a certain cohort was doing the kind of business the big banks did before the financial crisis, “but without the corresponding regulation and supervision.”
The economists called it “a new shadow-banking business model that resembles investment banking in the run-up to the 2007-09 financial crisis.”
Their reports describe the trends in detail, but in measured tones. No flashing red lights or alarm bells. But they do tell how things could go south: “A widespread default of risky corporate loans could force life insurers to assume balance sheet losses” from their CLO holdings.
Institutional investors watch life insurers carefully and know where the shadow-banking activity is concentrated; they would presumably see the losses coming and withdraw from the affected insurers in time. That’s what we’ve been seeing in the regional banking sector this spring, where savvy investors have identified potential problem banks and sold or shorted their stocks. The trouble is, such trading can turn a potential problem into a real one.
Upshot: “U.S. life insurers may require government support to prevent shocks from being amplified and transmitted to the household sector,” the three warn…
[Ellis explains how this happened; TLDR: life insurers chased yield; private equity firms obliged.]
The Fed researchers said the private-equity firms appear to be giving their affiliated insurers “some of the riskiest portions” of the CLOs that they package. Since risk and reward go hand in hand, presumably the insurers are getting better returns than they would from safe bonds.
But still, should America’s insurance regulators be allowing this? Remember, America’s banks were told to stop.
The National Association of Insurance Commissioners has, in fact, proposed a change in the post-crisis rule that’s been letting insurers count risky CLOs as if they were safe bonds.
But the NAIC isn’t a regulator; it’s a non-governmental organization that represents America’s 56 insurance regulators (one for each state, five for the territories, and one for the District of Columbia). The regulators often have different priorities and viewpoints, and when the NAIC makes a proposal, it can take years to get the necessary buy-in.
So here we are. Countless policyholders and annuitants are diligently paying their premiums to keep their contracts in force, unaware of these trends. The Fed’s economists see undisclosed risk, but the Fed has no legal authority to regulate insurers. The insurance regulators don’t seem in any rush to rein in the risk-takers. Keep in mind: Life-and-annuity is a $9 trillion industry that doesn’t have anything like the FDIC…
Eminently worth reading in full (along with the report and the paper linked above): “Risky Business,” from @EllisItems.
(Image above: source)
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As we whack the mole, we might recall that it was on this date in 1931 that the New York Stock Exchange began regularly reporting short selling data for the first time. The Crash of 1929 had rocked the stock market; the Dow dropped 32.6% in 1930 as the American economy took a nosedive (unemployment doubled to 16.3% by 1931, as the Great Depression set in). But short sellers in the stock market made a killing. Consequently, those short sellers took a lot of heat for the stock market crash of 1929, which led to the enactment of the uptick rule (requiring that short selling orders be filled only during upticks in share prices and meant to mitigate the negative impact of short sales) shortly thereafter. The reporting of short orders/sales was another step toward reining in the phenomenon.
The uptick rule was abolished in 2007, just prior to the market crash of 2008.










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