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Posts Tagged ‘economy

“When we achieved, and the new world dawned, the old men came out again and took our victory to re-make in the likeness of the former world they knew”*…

 

The term “technological unemployment” is from John Maynard Keynes’s 1930 lecture, “Economic possibilities for our grandchildren,” where he predicted that in the future, around 2030, the production problem would be solved and there would be enough for everyone, but machines (robots, he thought) would cause “technological unemployment.” There would be plenty to go around, but the means of getting a share in it, jobs, might be scarce.

We are not quite at 2030, but I believe we have reached the “Keynes point,” where indeed enough is produced by the economy, both physical and virtual, for all of us. (If total US household income of $8.495 trillion were shared by America’s 116 million households, each would earn $73,000, enough for a decent middle-class life.) And we have reached a point where technological unemployment is becoming a reality.

The problem in this new phase we’ve entered is not quite jobs, it is access to what’s produced. Jobs have been the main means of access for only 200 or 300 years. Before that, farm labor, small craft workshops, voluntary piecework, or inherited wealth provided access. Now access needs to change again.

However this happens, we have entered a different phase for the economy, a new era where production matters less and what matters more is access to that production: distribution, in other words—who gets what and how they get it.

We have entered the distributive era…

From a very provocative essay by a very wise man, Brian Arthur.  You can– and should– read it in its entirety at “Where is technology taking the economy?

See also: “Everyone can enjoy a life of luxurious leisure if the machine-produced wealth is shared, or most people can end up miserably poor if the machine-owners successfully lobby against wealth redistribution”*…

[Image above: source]

* T.E. Lawrence

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As we rethink the fundamentals, we might recall that it was on this date in 1994 that The Superhighway Summit was held at the University of California, Los Angeles’s Royce Hall.

It was the “first public conference bringing together all of the major industry, government and academic leaders in the field [and] also began the national dialogue about the Information Superhighway and its implications.” The conference was organized by Richard Frank of the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and Jeffrey Cole and Geoffrey Cowan, the former co-directors of UCLA’s Center for Communication Policy.The keynote speaker was Vice President Al Gore who said:  “We have a dream for…an information superhighway that can save lives, create jobs and give every American, young and old, the chance for the best education available to anyone, anywhere.”

According to Cynthia Lee in UCLA Today: “The participants underscored the point that the major challenge of the Information Highway would lie in access or the ‘gap between those who will have access to it because they can afford to equip themselves with the latest electronic devices and those who can’t.’”  [source]

Vice President Gore at the Summit’s podium

source

 

 

Written by LW

January 11, 2018 at 1:01 am

“Forgive, O Lord, my little jokes on Thee / And I’ll forgive Thy great big one on me”*…

 

Religion in the United States has “revenues” of $1.2 Trillion a year– more than the combined revenues of the top 10 technology companies in the US, including Apple, Amazon, and Google– making it equivalent to the 15th largest national economy in the world.

Read the pecuniary particulars at “Religion in US ‘worth more than Google and Apple combined’.”

Download the underlying research– “The Socioeconomic Contributions of Religion to American Society: An Empirical Analysis” by Brian Grim of Georgetown University and Melissa Grim of the Newseum Institute– as a pdf here.

And for a concrete example of evangelical economic activity that may be happening off of the reader’s radar, consider the phenomenon that’s the subject of the film reviewed here.

* Robert Frost

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As we pass the offering plate, we might recall that it was on this date in 1895 that Daniel David Palmer gave the first chiropractic adjustment to Harvey Lillard in Davenport, Iowa. Palmer had been practicing in Davenport for thirty years as a magnetic healer.  During this time, he developed the theory that misalignment of the bones in the body was the basic underlying cause of all “dis-ease,” and the majority of these mis-alignments were in the spinal column.  On learning that Lillard, the janitor in his building, had a hearing problem, Palmer adjusted his spine, which, Palmer reported, cured the ailment– a claim that was seminal to Chiropractic history.

Davenport is now the home of Palmer Chiropractic College.

 source

 

Written by LW

September 18, 2016 at 1:01 am

“A rich man is nothing but a poor man with money”*…

Intrigued by the mechanisms that generate a world like ours, in which over 33% of the wealth in the U.S. is held by 1% of the population, economist Ricardo Fernholz and mathematician/statistician Robert Fernholz developed a model that might explain the high degree of income and wealth inequality we see in advanced economies.

As James Kwak notes in Baseline Scenario,

The model assumes that all households are identical with respect to patience (consumption decisions) and skill (earnings ability). Household outcomes differ solely because they have idiosyncratic investment opportunities—that is, they can’t invest in the market, only in things like privately-held businesses or unique pieces of real estate. Yet when you simulate the model, you see an increasing share of wealth finding its way into fewer and fewer hands [as illustrated in the chart above].

As the authors emphasize, “it is luck alone – in the form of high realised random investment returns – that generates this extreme divergence.”  In the absence of redistribution, either explicit or implicit, this is the kind of society you end up with…

Clearly, the world is not quite so simple; there are some redistributive mechanisms (taxes and the like), and (given, e.g., educational differences) not all peoples’ earning abilities are equal.  Still, as Kwak observes,

…this is a useful antidote to the widespread belief that outcomes are solely due to skill, hard work, or some other “virtuous” attribute. Even if everyone starts off equal, you’re going to have a few big, big winners and a lot of losers. Because we want to find order and meaning in the universe, we like to think that success is deserved, but it almost always comes with a healthy serving of luck. Bear that in mind the next time you hear some gazillionaire hedge fund manager or corporate CEO insisting that he knows how the country ought to be run.

Read a summary of the Fernholzs’ paper here; download the (rather mathematically-intense) original here.

* “A rich man is nothing but a poor man with money”  – W.C. Fields

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As we ponder polarization, we might send balanced birthday greetings to Elmer Ambrose Sperry; he was born on this date in 1860.  An early exemplar of equipoise, Sperry was the engineer and inventor who devised the gyrocompass (a huge advance on traditional magnetic compasses, first tested on the U.S.S. Delaware in 1911).  His compasses and stabilizers have helped navigate and “balance level” first ships, then aircraft ever since.

 source

 

Written by LW

October 12, 2012 at 1:01 am

And that’s the way it is…

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Arguments rage as to how the U.S. sailed into the economic eddy in which we’re caught, and as to how we should navigate out.  (Your correspondent’s thoughts, FWIW, are littered among the postings in his other blog.)  But the situation is what it is…  a situation that the folks at ProPublica have profiled, current as to data available this month.

Some selections:

– Annual rate at which the GDP grew this year: 1.3 percent between April and June, 0.4 percent between January and March
– Average annual GDP growth from 1998-2007: 3.02 percent
– Total jobs lost since January 2008: 8.7 million
– Total jobs recovered since January 2008: 1.8 million
– Unemployment rate in July 2011: 9.1 percent
– The “natural unemployment rate”: 5 percent
– Months that the unemployment rate has been around 9 percent or more: 28
– Number of unemployed people in July 2011: 13.9 million
– Number of long-term unemployed people in June 2011: 6.3 million, or 44.4 percent of the unemployed
– Number of long-term unemployed people in July 2011: 6.2 million, still about 44.4 percent of the unemployed
– Years it will take to get back to an unemployment rate of 5 percent: four years if we’re adding jobs at 350,000 per month; 11 years if we’re adding jobs at the 2005 rate of 210,000 per month

More at ProPublica… In an economy the fundamental premise of which is consumption, and in which employment gains demand a GDP growth rate of over 2%, it’s a sobering picture.

As we contemplating re-stuffing our mattresses, we might recall that it was on this date in 1835 that the New York Sun began a series of six articles detailing the discovery of civilized life on the moon.  Now known as “The Great Moon Hoax,” the articles attributed the “discovery” to Sir John Herschel, the greatest living astronmer of the day.  Herschel was initially amused, wryly noting that his own real observations could never be as exciting.  But ultimately he tired of having to answer questioners who believed the story.  The series was not discovered to be a hoax for several weeks after its publication and, even then, the newspaper did not issue a retraction.

The “ruby amphitheater” on the Moon, per the New York Sun (source)

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